PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES
Economic Risk and Willingness to Learn about Globalization: A Field Experiment with Migrants and Other Underprivileged Groups in Vietnam (with Eddy Malesky and Nita Rudra), Forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science.
Existing research maintains that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals are reluctant to seek information that might help mitigate risk. We challenge this convention by proposing that perceptions of risks associated with global economic shocks can incentivize some disadvantaged individuals to acquire knowledge about their distributional effects. Internal migrants, in particular, have strong incentives to respond to such risks by seeking information. We test our hypotheses using a randomized experiment in Vietnam exposing half of the participants to risks associated with a new trade agreement with the European Union. We track willingness to learn by observing whether respondents accessed an online video describing the economic impacts of the agreement. We find that treated migrants were 180% more likely to seek knowledge than the control group, but find null effects for residents from sending and receiving locations. Our findings help uncover the key role migrants can play in supporting globalization and shared prosperity.
Bonifai, Niccolo W., Nita Rudra, Carew Boulding and Samantha L. Moya. Globalization and Nationalism: Contending Forces in World Politics. 2022. International Studies Review 24(2): 1-7.
Globalization is facing widespread condemnation at a time when worldwide crises ranging from climate change to pandemic policy increasingly demand a coordinated response. Rising nationalist, populist, and anti-globalization movements in many of the world's richest nations are placing great pressure on the international system pioneered by Western democracies following World War II. This special issue showcases new research on the sources and types of backlash. It also considers the consequences of this backlash for democracy, for international institutions and foreign policy. We aim to broaden the debate on the causes and consequences of rising populism and nationalism and offer unique perspectives on how and why the current international order is struggling to address the many global challenges in need of large-scale cooperative solutions.
Rudra, Nita, Irfan Nooruddin, and Niccolo W. Bonifai. Globalization Backlash in Developing Countries: Broadening the Research Agenda. 2021. Comparative Political Studies, 2416-2441.
This special issue explores why the globalization backlash is roiling rich industrialized countries. But why is the backlash less salient in developing ones? In this piece, we challenge scholars to consider why the backlash has not diffused widely to the developing world. We argue support for globalization depends on citizens’ expectations of future economic mobility. This is high in the early phases of globalization which encapsulates many developing economies. Since information about globalization’s effects is limited, observed mobility of some sustains optimism that the new economic order will allow everyone to prosper. Over time, unrealized expectations of mobility for less-skilled workers puncture this optimism. Such workers in rich countries are long past the honeymoon phase of globalization and confronting realities of stagnant incomes and job precarity. Barring visionary policies unlikely to emerge from today’s polarized politics, their discontent will soon be shared by their developing country counterparts, dooming future globalization.
WORKING PAPERS
Empowering Labor? Unveiling the Political Dynamics of Global Value Chains (with Nita Rudra).
Mobilization of the Losers: Firm Lobbying in the EU (with Leonardo Baccini and Andreas Dür).
The Global Information Regime: Distributional Conflict and the Politics of Separation Over Time (with Abe Newman and Siyao Li). Revise & Resubmit.
Economic Risk and Willingness to Learn about Globalization: A Field Experiment with Migrants and Other Underprivileged Groups in Vietnam (with Eddy Malesky and Nita Rudra), Forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science.
Existing research maintains that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals are reluctant to seek information that might help mitigate risk. We challenge this convention by proposing that perceptions of risks associated with global economic shocks can incentivize some disadvantaged individuals to acquire knowledge about their distributional effects. Internal migrants, in particular, have strong incentives to respond to such risks by seeking information. We test our hypotheses using a randomized experiment in Vietnam exposing half of the participants to risks associated with a new trade agreement with the European Union. We track willingness to learn by observing whether respondents accessed an online video describing the economic impacts of the agreement. We find that treated migrants were 180% more likely to seek knowledge than the control group, but find null effects for residents from sending and receiving locations. Our findings help uncover the key role migrants can play in supporting globalization and shared prosperity.
Bonifai, Niccolo W., Nita Rudra, Carew Boulding and Samantha L. Moya. Globalization and Nationalism: Contending Forces in World Politics. 2022. International Studies Review 24(2): 1-7.
Globalization is facing widespread condemnation at a time when worldwide crises ranging from climate change to pandemic policy increasingly demand a coordinated response. Rising nationalist, populist, and anti-globalization movements in many of the world's richest nations are placing great pressure on the international system pioneered by Western democracies following World War II. This special issue showcases new research on the sources and types of backlash. It also considers the consequences of this backlash for democracy, for international institutions and foreign policy. We aim to broaden the debate on the causes and consequences of rising populism and nationalism and offer unique perspectives on how and why the current international order is struggling to address the many global challenges in need of large-scale cooperative solutions.
Rudra, Nita, Irfan Nooruddin, and Niccolo W. Bonifai. Globalization Backlash in Developing Countries: Broadening the Research Agenda. 2021. Comparative Political Studies, 2416-2441.
This special issue explores why the globalization backlash is roiling rich industrialized countries. But why is the backlash less salient in developing ones? In this piece, we challenge scholars to consider why the backlash has not diffused widely to the developing world. We argue support for globalization depends on citizens’ expectations of future economic mobility. This is high in the early phases of globalization which encapsulates many developing economies. Since information about globalization’s effects is limited, observed mobility of some sustains optimism that the new economic order will allow everyone to prosper. Over time, unrealized expectations of mobility for less-skilled workers puncture this optimism. Such workers in rich countries are long past the honeymoon phase of globalization and confronting realities of stagnant incomes and job precarity. Barring visionary policies unlikely to emerge from today’s polarized politics, their discontent will soon be shared by their developing country counterparts, dooming future globalization.
WORKING PAPERS
Empowering Labor? Unveiling the Political Dynamics of Global Value Chains (with Nita Rudra).
Mobilization of the Losers: Firm Lobbying in the EU (with Leonardo Baccini and Andreas Dür).
The Global Information Regime: Distributional Conflict and the Politics of Separation Over Time (with Abe Newman and Siyao Li). Revise & Resubmit.
You Could be Next: Financial Sanctions, Third Parties, and Hedging (with Justin Casey, Woojeong Jang and Abraham Newman).
POLICY ARTICLES
Moder, Isabella, and Niccolo Bonifai. 2017. Access to Finance in the Western Balkans. ECB Occasional Paper 197.
Limited access to finance is one of the main obstacles for firms located in the Western Balkans and hampers economic growth as well as the transmission of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to undertake an in-depth analysis of access to finance constraints in this region, where countries as EU candidates or potential candidates have a prospect of joining the European Union. Besides touching upon macroeconomic and banking sector indicators that influence access to finance, this paper empirically assesses firm-level factors that determine whether a firm operating in the Western Balkans is credit-constrained, both in actual and perceived terms. In line with the literature, the results suggest that size, age, location, being audited, having outstanding loans and expectations about future performance matter for actual credit availability. The econometric analysis is complemented by a review of the Western Balkan countries’ Economic Reform Programmes, which indicate that financing constraints are tackled by most national authorities through specific policy measures, mostly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
POLICY ARTICLES
Moder, Isabella, and Niccolo Bonifai. 2017. Access to Finance in the Western Balkans. ECB Occasional Paper 197.
Limited access to finance is one of the main obstacles for firms located in the Western Balkans and hampers economic growth as well as the transmission of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to undertake an in-depth analysis of access to finance constraints in this region, where countries as EU candidates or potential candidates have a prospect of joining the European Union. Besides touching upon macroeconomic and banking sector indicators that influence access to finance, this paper empirically assesses firm-level factors that determine whether a firm operating in the Western Balkans is credit-constrained, both in actual and perceived terms. In line with the literature, the results suggest that size, age, location, being audited, having outstanding loans and expectations about future performance matter for actual credit availability. The econometric analysis is complemented by a review of the Western Balkan countries’ Economic Reform Programmes, which indicate that financing constraints are tackled by most national authorities through specific policy measures, mostly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
